Before the 2026 World Cup kicked off on June 11, I wrote down my pick in a notebook, the way I always do before a big tournament. Spain. The reigning European champions, the best midfield in the world, the shortest price in the betting markets at around +450. I was not being clever — the whole world could see it. Spain were the favourites, France were the co-favourites at +500, England were third at +650, Brazil were +800 and the defending champions Argentina were +850. Four months after the final, I can tell you how that prediction held up: Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time at MetLife Stadium on July 19, and my pick won. But the road there was nothing like the markets expected, and the teams that surprised me were not the ones I had written down.
This is the honest post-mortem: who the favourites were, why they were favourites, which dark horses actually delivered, who embarrassed themselves, and what the 2026 tournament taught me about predicting World Cups. If you are reading this before the 2030 World Cup and wondering who to back, the lesson of 2026 is simple — trust the top four, fear the second tier, and never, ever write off a team that knows how to win ugly.
The favourites: Spain, France, England, Argentina, Brazil
Let me start with the five teams the markets actually believed in, because the 2026 tournament is unusual in how right the markets were about the top of the board — and how wrong they were about everything below it. Spain led the outright winner market at +450, which implied about a 16 percent chance of winning. They were ranked number two in the world, they had won Euro 2024, and under Luis de la Fuente they played the most controlled football I have seen from a national team in years. Their route to the title — Austria 3-0, Portugal 1-0, Belgium 2-1, France 2-0, Argentina 1-0 after extra time — was the hardest run any champion has had in my lifetime, and they conceded one goal in eight matches. One. That is the number that won them the trophy.
France were the co-favourites at +500, ranked number one in the world, with Kylian Mbappé at his peak and a squad so deep it could have fielded two teams. They won Group I with a perfect record, swept Sweden 3-0, beat Paraguay and Morocco, and then ran into Spain in the semi-final in Dallas and lost 2-0. Mbappé still won the Golden Boot with 10 goals and became the all-time top scorer in World Cup history with 22, one ahead of Lionel Messi. But France's tournament ended in the semi-final, and then got worse: they lost the third-place match 6-4 to England in Miami. For the pre-tournament number one, fourth place was a failure, and Didier Deschamps's 14-year spell in charge ended in defeat.
England were third in the betting at +650, ranked fourth in the world, and arrived with genuine belief after a semi-final in 2018, a final at Euro 2020 and a semi-final at Euro 2024. Under Thomas Tuchel they reached the semi-final again, losing 2-1 to Argentina in Atlanta after two late goals, and then beat France 6-4 in the third-place match — their best finish since winning the tournament in 1966. Bellingham scored seven, the most ever by an England player at a single World Cup, and Kane added six. England did not win it, but they left with their heads high.
Argentina were the defending champions at +850, ranked third in the world, and they were carried to the final by nerve rather than football. They edged Cape Verde on penalties after a 1-1 draw, beat Egypt 3-2, needed penalties again against Switzerland in the quarter-final, and beat England 2-1 in the semi-final. In the final they sat deep, fouled, and tried to survive — and they nearly did. Messi, at 39, played his last World Cup, finished with 15 touches in the final, and became the oldest outfield player ever in a men's World Cup final. Argentina lost 1-0 in extra time, and Enzo Fernández said afterwards they would have won on penalties. Maybe. But the champions were the better team, and Argentina's golden generation finally ran out of road.
And then there was Brazil. The pre-tournament favourites among the non-European heavyweights at around 11 percent title odds, +800 in the betting, ranked sixth in the world, and under Carlo Ancelotti they looked more structured and more organised than any Brazil team in years, with Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha on the wings. They topped Group C and beat Japan 2-1 in the round of 32. Then they ran into Norway in the last 16 and lost 2-1. Brazil were the market's most expensive disappointment — the biggest letdown of the tournament in pure betting terms — and their exit is the result I still think about when anyone asks me whether favourites can be trusted.
The dark horses: Norway, and the teams that nearly did it
Every World Cup has a dark horse, and in 2026 it was Norway. Nobody had Norway in their top ten before the tournament, and they ended it as the team that knocked out Brazil 2-1 in the round of 16 — the defining upset of the competition. Norway were not a fluke, either: they were organised, physical, and utterly fearless, and they made the last 16 look easy before Brazil found out the hard way that a team with nothing to lose is the most dangerous team in a knockout game. If you had backed Norway at long odds to reach the quarter-finals, you had a very good summer.
Switzerland deserve a mention too — they took Argentina to penalties in the quarter-final after a 1-1 draw, and they were one shootout away from a semi-final. And Austria, who lost 3-0 to Spain in the knockouts, had been one of the best-organised teams in the group stage. The pattern of this tournament was that the second tier — the teams ranked between 6 and 11 percent in the title odds, Germany at 8 percent, Portugal at 7 percent, the Netherlands at 6 percent — was decimated early. Germany and the Netherlands both won their groups and both lost on penalties in the round of 32. Portugal lost 1-0 to Spain. Of the strongest pre-tournament favourites, only Spain and Argentina survived to contest the final.
That is the real lesson of the dark horses in 2026: the upsets happened, but they happened in the middle of the draw, not at the top of it. The four semi-finalists were the four highest-ranked teams in the world — France, Spain, Argentina and England. The chaos was real, but pedigree still decided the last four. If you want to pick a dark horse for 2030, pick a team that can defend and win a penalty shootout, not a team that plays beautiful football. Beautiful football loses to organised football in a knockout game more often than anyone admits.
The hosts: what happened to the USA, Mexico and Canada
The three host nations were the great unknown of this tournament, and honestly they were the disappointment of it. The USA were priced at around +5,500 to win the whole thing — long odds, but host nations have a history of overperforming. They did not make the semi-finals, and they did not come close. Mexico had the Azteca and the altitude and the best opening-night atmosphere of the tournament, and they did not make the semi-finals either. Canada, playing at home for the first time, did not get out of the group stage in the way their fans had hoped.
I do not want to be too harsh — hosting a World Cup is a different job from winning one, and all three countries staged a magnificent tournament. But the football lesson is clear: home advantage helps, but it does not close a gap in quality. The semi-finals were four European and South American heavyweights, and none of the hosts were in the conversation by the second week. If you are backing a host nation in 2030, check whether they can defend first. None of the 2026 hosts could, not at the level required.
My pick, and what I got wrong
So here is the honest accounting. My pick was Spain, and Spain won — 1-0 after extra time, Ferran Torres in the 106th minute, the second World Cup in their history, 16 years after the first. I got the winner right, and I got the reason right: the best midfield, the best defence, the most controlled football. What I got wrong was the path. I did not think Spain would have to beat Portugal, Belgium, France and Argentina in consecutive knockout games, or concede one goal in eight matches.
I also got Brazil wrong. I had them in my final four, and they lost to Norway in the last 16. I got France wrong — I had them in the final, and they lost 2-0 to Spain in the semi and then 6-4 to England in the third-place match. And I got the dark horses wrong, because I did not have Norway on my list at all, and they produced the upset of the tournament. That is the honest truth about predicting World Cups: you can get the winner right and still get most of the tournament wrong, because the tournament is not one prediction. It is 104 matches, and chaos lives in the middle of the draw.
Conclusion
Spain won the 2026 World Cup because they were the best team, and the betting markets knew it before a ball was kicked — +450, the shortest price in the field, and the only favourite that survived the tournament. France, the world number one, finished fourth. Brazil, the great hope of the non-European teams, lost to Norway in the last 16. England finished third, their best result in 60 years. Argentina took the champions to extra time and lost by one goal. And Norway, the team nobody picked, produced the upset of the tournament.
If you are picking a winner for 2030: trust the top four in the world rankings, because the semi-finals were the top four. Fear the second tier — Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal all went home early. And never write off a team that knows how to win ugly. Spain had it too, and that is why they are champions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the World Cup 2026?
Spain, beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final at MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey, on July 19, 2026. Ferran Torres scored the only goal, in the 106th minute. It was Spain's second World Cup title, after 2010.
Who were the favorites to win the World Cup 2026?
Spain led the betting at around +450, ahead of France at +500, England at +650, Brazil at +800 and defending champions Argentina at +850. The four semi-finalists were the four highest-ranked teams in the world.
Who were the dark horses at World Cup 2026?
Norway were the standout — they knocked Brazil out 2-1 in the round of 16, the biggest upset of the tournament. Switzerland also impressed, taking Argentina to penalties in the quarter-final.
How did Brazil do at the 2026 World Cup?
Brazil topped Group C and beat Japan 2-1 in the round of 32, then lost 2-1 to Norway in the last 16 — the biggest disappointment of the tournament in betting terms, having been priced at around 11 percent title odds.
Who finished third at the 2026 World Cup?
England, who beat France 6-4 in the third-place match in Miami on July 18, 2026 — England's best World Cup finish since winning the tournament in 1966.
Who was the top scorer at the 2026 World Cup?
Kylian Mbappé of France, with 10 goals. His tally made him the all-time top scorer in World Cup history with 22 goals, one ahead of Lionel Messi.
